Fig. 3

Model outcomes by prevalence differences between neighbours. Panel (A) shows the number of people who need to be screened to prevent one case per cluster via rapid diagnostic test. The location of each point on the plot represents the PfPR2–10 of the seed point (x-axis) vs. the mean PfPR2–10 of the four international neighbours in the cluster (y-axis). The colour of each point on the plot represents the number of individuals who must be screened to prevent one case of malaria when travelling from the international neighbours to the seed point. Each point represents the median cluster value of 50 parameter draws. Panel (B) is a density plot showing the distribution of the population at risk of P. falciparum. The x-axis represents the difference in PfPR2–10 between each seed point and its nearest border neighbour